No Exit, No Allies: How Conflict and Geopolitics Are Reshaping the Rohingya Crisis
February 2025
This month, Kiron focuses on the Rohingya crisis as shifting conflict dynamics, and geopolitical realignments push the situation toward greater instability. The Arakan Army’s (AA) takeover of Myanmar’s western border has left the Rohingya increasingly vulnerable, with armed Rohingya factions struggling to respond amid internal divisions and limited external support. In Bangladesh’s refugee camps, deteriorating conditions, rising crime, and escalating religious tensions are fueling extremist narratives, with some factions advocating armed resistance while others seek ideological control. The abrupt U.S. aid suspension has further compounded the crisis, placing immense pressure on Bangladesh and creating an opportunity for China and India to expand their influence. With regional powers recalibrating their strategies and militant voices gaining traction, the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the Rohingya crisis remains a localized humanitarian emergency or escalates into a broader regional security challenge.
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